Today's San Antonio Express News has an article that highlights a study released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas entitled "The Changing Face of Texas: Population Projections and Implications ." The study supports the conclusions I discussed in this prior post, and contains this striking statement concerning the urgency of the present situation:
If the income differential between Anglos and non-Anglos persists, a larger share of Texans could be drawn into poverty in the future. According to the Texas State Data Center, the share of households with annual incomes of $25,000 or less will increase from 30.7 percent (in 2000) to 37.5 percent by 2040. Moreover, the percentage of families with earnings exceeding $100,000 will fall from 11.5 percent to 8.5 percent. The net impact could be a decline in real income, reduced tax revenue per household and increased burden on the state government to pay for welfare services in Texas. As the state is likely to depend progressively more on non-Anglo Texans for future tax revenues, it is important to lessen the existing wage gap and education differential between ethnic groups. . . .
The study warns of increasing numbers -- 30% by 2040 -- of our citizens who will not have a high school diploma. At the same time, public school enrollment is expected to skyrocket. As a result, the Dallas Fed concludes that "state expenditure on public education as well as the number of students requiring financial assistance could expand rapidly unless socioeconomic differences between races are reduced. Rising education costs coupled with slow growth in tax revenues would adversely impact the state’s financial situation."
The education section of the study concludes with this clear directive:
For the Texas economy to remain robust, it is essential that the state’s education system make progress on at least two fronts: (1) investing in resources to improve overall student achievement, and (2) developing programs that help bridge the educational attainment gap between racial and ethnic groups.
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